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A Winning Formula: Let McCain be McCain
Politics & People, by Albert R. Hunt, Washington Bureau Chief, The Wall Street Journal
John McCain, the Republican that many Democrats would least like to face in
the 2000 presidential race, faces huge hurdles in winning the nomination:
He's not well known, has antagonized politically potent conservatives, is
hot tempered and is a favorite of the Washington press corps.
But the biggest obstacle is Iowa, where the first major nominating contest
will take place in less than a year. The Iowa caucuses, which place a
premium on organization, ideological fervor or geographical proximity, is
candidate McCain's worst nightmare.
Not surprisingly, there is a raging debate inside the McCain campaign
whether to skip Iowa altogether. Top advisors note the Arizona senator's
shortcomings there and recall other promising GOP candidates – Jack Kemp
and Phil Gramm among them – who collapsed after mediocre showings in Iowa.
Iowa is a caucus where the committed reign. Voters trek out on a cold
Monday evening to over 2,000 schools, churches or firehouses for several
hours. New Hampshire, by contrast, with a population that is less than
half of Iowa's, had more than twice Iowa's turnout in its 1996 GOP
presidential primary. Other candidates have lined up scores of organizers
by now; the Arizona Republican has virtually none. The religious right,
whose leaders despise John McCain, has a disproportionate influence,
turning over 40% of the participants to the last GOP Iowa presidential
caucus.
But as difficult as it may be, not to run in Iowa would be a death knell
for Mr. McCain or any other presidential aspirant. The state doesn't have
a record of picking presidential nominees, but it effectively winnows out
mere aspirants from the real contenders. The first three or four finishers
in the Hawkeye State will live to compete in New Hampshire eight days
later. The rest can fold up their tents; if someone doesn't compete he or
she will be ceding the contender spot to someone else.
That is crucial for Mr. McCain because New Hampshire – with its devotion
to fiscal discipline, patriotism and moderate social conservatism – is
tailor-made for this prisoner-of-war hero. If he places in Iowa, he would
have a real shot at winning New Hampshire and becoming one of the finalists
for the GOP nomination.
But how to crack Iowa? The answer may be straightforward, even simple: Let
McCain be McCain. More than any of his presidential rivals, Mr. McCain's
willingness to take on sacred cows has demonstrated an independence and
integrity rare in American politics. If he runs a conventional race, his
more conventional rivals will do it much better.
But to go into Iowa and assail agricultural subsidies, like ethanol, and
the powerful religious-right leaders would be natural for this maverick.
It would separate him from the pack and could well energize more than a few
Republicans.
To take on subsidies for ethanol, a corn-based fuel additive supposedly
sacrosant in this farm state, may be surprisingly good politics as well as
policy. There is only on reason taxpayers fork over $770 million a year
for ethanol subsidies: the huge campaign contributions to both parties from
Archer Daniels Midland Co., the prime beneficiary of the subsidy. This is
a classic illustration of why the corrupt system of financing campaigns
needs an overhaul, a deeply held McCain position that antagonizes many GOP
leaders.
To confront the leaders of the religious right is dicier. But they are
going after him anyway. Both Pat Robertson and anti-abortion activists
have vowed to undercut Mr. McCain – despite his consistent anti-abortion
record – because he favors campaign-finance reform, showing the true color
of these self-styled moral leaders.
In Iowa, as elsewhere, most citizens including a good many Republicans, are
contemptuous of the narrow-minded intolerance of Pat Robertson and his ilk.
In a parody of himself, Jerry Falwell now suggests that "Teletubbies," the
popular children's TV show, is a gay plot.
Yet the conventional wisdom is that the Christian right is the party's base
and it's suicidal to oppose them. A look at some neighboring heartland
states suggest otherwise. In Kansas, moderate Republicans soundly rejected
a religious-right challenge to a popular GOP governor, and Vince Snowbarger
was one of only five House Republican incumbents defeated last November, in
part because of his ties to the Christian right. In Nebraska, the poster
boy of the religious right, Rep. Jon Christensen, finished a dismal third
in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
There are more than a few mainstream Republicans who have dropped out of
participating in political events like Iowa because they're overwhelmed,
even intimidated, by religious zealots. Yet, it's a safe bet that none of
the other presidential hopefuls will give voice to these concerns; count on
the George W. Bushes, Liddy Doles and Lamar Alexanders to follow Steve
Forbes in pandering to these activists.
Moreover assailing the narrowness of the leaders need not alienate all of
the followers, most of whom are cetainly not intolerant bigots. In 1992,
Bill Clinton symbolically took on the black entertainer, Sister Souljah,
annoying some African American leaders, but never losing the committed
support of the rank-and-file voters.
Mr. McCain has the credibility and the character to do this effectively.
Moreover, it would highlight the uniqueness of his candidacy in the GOP
field. "I disagree with John McCain on a number of issues but what
attracts me to him is his independence," notes conservative South Carolina
Rep. Mark Sanford. "That is the rarest of commodities in politics these
days."
The man who spent 5 1/2 brutal years in a Vietnamese prisoner-of-war camp
embodies independence and courage. That was brilliantly captured in this
month's A&E Biography on Mr. McCain. It is one of the most powerful
documentaries about a politician ever, even more so because it shows warts
as well. A quarter-century ago, his beer-guzzling, skirt-chasin, playboy
ways caused the breakup of his first marriage. Yet there is his former
wife, Carol, a woman of real courage in her own right, on TV talking about
her former husband's virtues.
John McCain can't get to the White House without going through Iowa, a
venue where he barely registers today. He has a chance to change that and
shake up the Republican Party – for the better – in the process.